Macroeconomic Data
Macroeconomic data refers to the various reports which measure different areas of the US economy. Broad economic strength can be measured by fluctuations in these quarterly or monthly releases. These are reports are based on both quantitative data as well as sentiment on economic conditions.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
This wide reaching metric observes the monetary value of an economy's finished goods and services, on a quarterly basis.
GDP is the most commonly referenced measure of economic growth or contraction worldwide, which all major countries analyze and release.
Three version of GDP are released in the United States.
First, Advance - This is an early snapshot without complete data.
Second, Preliminary - Revised advance estimate. Larger dataset.
Third, Final - The most accurate reflection of economic strength.
All three are measured equally, however more data is available as time since the end of the prior quarter expands.
When and where?
Quarterly report, issued by the Bureau of Economic Analysis
Advance - 30 days after quarter end
Preliminary - 30 days after Advance
Final - 30 days after Preliminary
Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
Two sets of reports are released monthly, which are reported as aggregate surveys of the trailing month's business conditions.
ISM and S&P Global conduct their own surveys, released as ISM Manufacturing & Services PMI, and Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI.
These surveys ask respondents to report a monthly change in the following variables :
Business output, new orders, employment, costs, selling prices, exports, purchasing activity, supplier deliveries, backlogs, inventories of inputs, inventories of finished goods.
A reading over 50 typically implies expansion in the industry, while below implies recognition of a contractionary environment.
When and where?
(ISM) - Monthly report, per the Institute for Supply Management
Released on the third business day of the month. References the prior month's data.
(S&P) - Monthly report, per S&P Global
Flash Mfg. and Flash Services PMI released roughly 3 weeks after month's end. A revised version is released 1 week later.
Retail Sales
Retail Sales data tracks domestic consumer spending.
This metric helps understand US consumer resilience to inflationary pressures, as well as general demand for finished goods.
Retail Sales report covers both durable and non-durable goods, spanning sales from 13 different types of food services and retail stores. Core retail sales are announced within the report, which covers the same data - excluding the volatile categories of automobiles, gasoline, building materials, and food services.
When and where?
Monthly report, issued by the Census Bureau
Released two weeks after the start of the month. References the prior month's data.
Empire State Manufacturing Index
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York conducts a survey each month with 200 participants across many industries.
Respondents are asked to rate the month's business conditions relative to the prior month.
A scale of -100 to 100 is used. 0 indicates they've witnessed no change. Above zero implies improving business conditions, and a negative response would imply weakening business conditions.
When and where?
Monthly report, issued by the New York Federal Reserve Bank
Released around the 15th of each month, in reference to the prior month's change in business conditions.
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
Each month, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia conducts a survey of changes in business conditions in the manufacturing sector.
250 respondents are asked to rate their business conditions relative to the prior month.
This ranking is similar to Empire State, a scale of -100 to +100. Similarly, 0 means no change, a positive response implies improving business conditions, and a response below 0 would imply weaking business conditions.
When and where?
Monthly report, issued by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
Released on the third Thursday of each month, regarding the last month's business conditions.